Specialised Technical Course
Uncertainty and Risk Analysis in Petroleum System Modeling
Develop a structured approach to assessing uncertainty, sensitivity and risk in petroleum system modelling.
Course Overview
Examines uncertainty in petroleum system models and its effect on exploration risk. Participants assess model inputs, sensitivity and alternative geological scenarios.
Who This Course Is For
- Petroleum system modellers reviewing assumptions
- Exploration geoscientists assessing modelled charge
- Geochemists contributing model input evidence
- Technical teams comparing geological scenarios
What Participants Will Learn
Define uncertainties relevant to petroleum system decisions
Assess model input ranges and evidence quality
Plan sensitivity comparisons for selected model inputs
Interpret scenario differences and their risk implications
Prioritise model uncertainties using sensitivity evidence
Key topics
- Input uncertainty
- Sensitivity analysis
- Geological scenarios
- Risk interpretation
Course Modules
Back to Course OverviewPetroleum System Decision Context
Petroleum System Decision Context
Module overview
Define the modelling question and the uncertainties relevant to exploration decisions.
Key topics
Input uncertainty · Sensitivity analysis · Geological scenarios · Risk interpretation
Learning outcome
Participants can define uncertainties relevant to petroleum system decisions.
Learning format
Technical explanation · worked examples · guided exercise
Input Evidence and Ranges
Input Evidence and Ranges
Module overview
Review input evidence, parameter ranges and dependencies between assumptions.
Key topics
Input evidence · Parameter ranges · Assumption dependencies
Learning outcome
Participants can assess model input ranges and evidence quality.
Learning format
Technical explanation · worked examples · guided exercise
Sensitivity Study Design
Sensitivity Study Design
Module overview
Plan comparisons that reveal the influence of selected model inputs.
Key topics
Sensitivity objectives · Comparison design · Influential inputs
Learning outcome
Participants can plan sensitivity comparisons for selected model inputs.
Learning format
Technical explanation · worked examples · guided exercise
Scenario and Risk Interpretation
Scenario and Risk Interpretation
Module overview
Compare geological scenarios and explain their effect on modelled risk.
Key topics
Geological scenarios · Output comparison · Risk implications
Learning outcome
Participants can interpret scenario differences and their risk implications.
Learning format
Technical explanation · worked examples · guided exercise
Practical Uncertainty Assessment
Practical Uncertainty Assessment
Module overview
Review a model study and prioritise uncertainties requiring further evidence.
Key topics
Study review · Uncertainty priorities · Evidence needs
Learning outcome
Participants can identify influential uncertainties and plan a petroleum system sensitivity study.
Learning format
Lectures, modelling examples and a risk workshop
Programme Information
Course duration, location, practical components, training-centre information and applicable certification arrangements depend on the selected programme.
Learning format: Lectures, modelling examples and a risk workshop
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